Peak Season 2025 (US): Capacity to Spare, Tariffs to Watch, and Carriers to Re-think

The arc of the last three U.S. holiday peaks reads like a pendulum. In 2022, e-commerce demand still rode its pandemic high, prompting integrators to tack on the steepest holiday levies in their history— a leading carrier’s additional handling fee leap-frogged to $6.55 per parcel after October 3, 2022 and oversize charges neared $40, with all “peak” fees kicking in right after Labor Day—underscoring a genuine capacity squeeze. By 2023, the market flipped: ShipMatrix calculated 120 million parcels of daily capacity against just 82 million pieces of expected demand, leaving a vast 38 million-parcel surplus and lifting on-time performance across the integrators into the mid-90 percent range. As carriers continued to build, November 2024 saw average U.S. delivery times drop 27% year-on-year to 3.7 days; still, some integrators continued to layer on two brand-new per-package surcharges and widened several others, effectively monetizing speed gains rather than passing them to shippers.

That history sets up 2025’s “capacity conundrum.” National truckload tender-rejection rates hover above 6.5%—a soft market signal—while parcel networks continue to publish roughly 120 million daily slots, meaning raw space is abundant. Some integrators’ July 21 update confirms that their rebranded “Demand” surcharges can increase at any time – a stance most integrators share. As a result, the key question has shifted from “Will there be room?” to “How can shippers avoid premium fees in a market that isn’t actually constrained?”

Tariffs: the demand wild card
Two policy shifts could reshape holiday import curves.

• 10 % baseline tariff. A universal 10% duty on most imports went into effect on April 5, 2025, but is expected to be a action target in the near term.
• De minimis suspension. On August 29, 2025, the $800 duty-free threshold disappeared for all countries, after earlier China-only restrictions.

Retailers are already “pulling forward” merchandise to beat the clock, but parcel consultants expect softer U.S. inbound volumes in November-December once duties are fully priced in. Domestic replenishment traffic, however, should remain brisk—good news for carriers that live off intra-US moves.

Alternative carriers: expanding the mix
Two policy shifts could reshape holiday import curves.

• Regional networks. The merged LaserShip–OnTrac grid now touches about 80% of U.S. households within three days and still skips Saturday surcharges.
• Gig-economy capacity. Crowdsourced platforms boast driver pools that can reach many parts of U.S. households for same-day or next-day delivery.

A Reveel study finds that shippers who diversify across at least three carriers trim peak-season surcharges by an average 18%. The challenge is complexity: each carrier has its own labels, cut-offs, and visibility tools – so poor integration can quickly wipe out savings.

Playbook for a profitable peak

With disciplined planning, the 2025 U.S. peak can pivot from a margin-squeezer to a competitive advantage—leveraging excess capacity, tariff timing, and a broader carrier bench to keep costs in check while service stays strong.